Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution
Joint Authors
Wang, Xinyu
Tan, Xueping
Chen, Kegui
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-12-05
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
This paper proposes a novel approach to the directional forecasting problem of short-term oil price changes.
In this approach, the short-term oil price series is associated with incomplete fuzzy information, and a new fused genetic-fuzzy information distribution method is developed to process such a fuzzy incomplete information set; then a feasible coding method of multidimensional information controlling points is adopted to fit genetic-fuzzy information distribution to time series forecasting.
Using the crude oil spot prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent as sample data, the empirical analysis results demonstrate that the novel fused genetic-fuzzy information distribution method statistically outperforms the benchmark of logistic regression model in prediction accuracy.
The results indicate that this new approach is effective in direction accuracy.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Wang, Xinyu& Chen, Kegui& Tan, Xueping. 2018. Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207185
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Wang, Xinyu…[et al.]. Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207185
American Medical Association (AMA)
Wang, Xinyu& Chen, Kegui& Tan, Xueping. Forecasting the Direction of Short-Term Crude Oil Price Changes with Genetic-Fuzzy Information Distribution. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207185
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1207185