Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model
Joint Authors
Qiu, Yuanying
Mi, Jianwei
Fan, Libin
Duan, Xuechao
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-11, 11 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-03-25
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
11
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
In order to improve the prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a short-term power load forecasting method based on the improved exponential smoothing grey model.
It firstly determines the main factor affecting the power load using the grey correlation analysis.
It then conducts power load forecasting using the improved multivariable grey model.
The improved prediction model firstly carries out the smoothing processing of the original power load data using the first exponential smoothing method.
Secondly, the grey prediction model with an optimized background value is established using the smoothed sequence which agrees with the exponential trend.
Finally, the inverse exponential smoothing method is employed to restore the predicted value.
The first exponential smoothing model uses the 0.618 method to search for the optimal smooth coefficient.
The prediction model can take the effects of the influencing factors on the power load into consideration.
The simulated results show that the proposed prediction algorithm has a satisfactory prediction effect and meets the requirements of short-term power load forecasting.
This research not only further improves the accuracy and reliability of short-term power load forecasting but also extends the application scope of the grey prediction model and shortens the search interval.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Mi, Jianwei& Fan, Libin& Duan, Xuechao& Qiu, Yuanying. 2018. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207196
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Mi, Jianwei…[et al.]. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207196
American Medical Association (AMA)
Mi, Jianwei& Fan, Libin& Duan, Xuechao& Qiu, Yuanying. Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Method Based on Improved Exponential Smoothing Grey Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-11.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1207196
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1207196