Forecasting of Chinese E-Commerce Sales: An Empirical Comparison of ARIMA, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, and a Combined ARIMA-NARNN Model
Joint Authors
Ji, Shouwen
Li, Maobin
Liu, Gang
Source
Mathematical Problems in Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2018, Issue 2018 (31 Dec. 2018), pp.1-12, 12 p.
Publisher
Hindawi Publishing Corporation
Publication Date
2018-11-19
Country of Publication
Egypt
No. of Pages
12
Main Subjects
Abstract EN
With the rapid development of e-commerce (EC) and shopping online, accurate and efficient forecasting of e-commerce sales (ECS) is very important for making strategies for purchasing and inventory of EC enterprises.
Affected by many factors, ECS volume range varies greatly and has both linear and nonlinear characteristics.
Three forecast models of ECS, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN), and ARIMA-NARNN, are used to verify the forecasting efficiency of the methods.
Several time series of ECS from China’s Jingdong Corporation are selected as experimental data.
The result shows that the ARIMA-NARNN model is more effective than ARIMA and NARNN models in forecasting ECS.
The analysis found that the ARIMA-NARNN model combines the linear fitting of ARIMA and the nonlinear mapping of NARNN, so it shows better prediction performance than the ARIMA and NARNN methods.
American Psychological Association (APA)
Li, Maobin& Ji, Shouwen& Liu, Gang. 2018. Forecasting of Chinese E-Commerce Sales: An Empirical Comparison of ARIMA, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, and a Combined ARIMA-NARNN Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering،Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1208608
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Li, Maobin…[et al.]. Forecasting of Chinese E-Commerce Sales: An Empirical Comparison of ARIMA, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, and a Combined ARIMA-NARNN Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering No. 2018 (2018), pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1208608
American Medical Association (AMA)
Li, Maobin& Ji, Shouwen& Liu, Gang. Forecasting of Chinese E-Commerce Sales: An Empirical Comparison of ARIMA, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network, and a Combined ARIMA-NARNN Model. Mathematical Problems in Engineering. 2018. Vol. 2018, no. 2018, pp.1-12.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1208608
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references
Record ID
BIM-1208608