A Compound Structure for Wind Speed Forecasting Using MKLSSVM with Feature Selection and Parameter Optimization

Abstract EN

The aims of this study contribute to a new hybrid model by combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with multikernel function least square support vector machine (MKLSSVM) optimized by hybrid gravitation search algorithm (HGSA) for short-term wind speed prediction.

In the forecasting process, EEMD is adopted to make the original wind speed data decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual firstly.

Then, partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to identify the correlation between the corresponding decomposed components.

Subsequently, the MKLSSVM using multikernel function of radial basis function (RBF) and polynomial (Poly) kernel function by weight coefficient is exploited as core forecasting engine to make the short-term wind speed prediction.

To improve the regression performance, the binary-value GSA (BGSA) in HGSA is utilized as feature selection approach to remove the ineffective candidates and reconstruct the most relevant feature input-matrix for the forecasting engine, while real-value GSA (RGSA) makes the parameter combination optimization of MKLSSVM model.

In the end, these respective decomposed subseries forecasting results are combined into the final forecasting values by aggregate calculation.

Numerical results and comparable analysis illustrate the excellent performance of the EEMD-HGSA-MKLSSVM model when applied in the short-term wind speed forecasting.