التحول الديموجرافي في مصر في الفترة من 2020 إلى 2060

Abstract EN

This research aims to achieve a major goal, which is to predict the demographic window and prepare for the stage of the elderly society in light of the demographic transition in Egypt during the period from 2020 to 2060, and to prepare for the elderly society stage during the window period.

the research found that: • the age structure of the population during the period from 2020 to 2050, and shows the entry of Egypt into the stage of the demographic window and shows the increase in the proportion of the population of working age (15-64) from 62 to 66.5%, with a decrease in the proportion of the population in the age group 0-14 from 33 to 22 %, and an increase in the population percentage from 65+, from 5 to 11%.

• the age structure of the population during the period from 2020 to 2060, and shows the entry of Egypt into the demographic window stage and shows the increase in the proportion of the population of working age (15-64) from 62 to 67%, with a decrease in the percentage of the population in the age group 0-14 from 33 to 19 %, and an increase in the population percentage from 65+, from 5 to 14%.

• micro-demographic dependency rates decreased during the study period to nearly half their value, due to the decrease in the population ratio from (0-14) from 33 to 19%.

• major demographic dependency rates increased during the study period, with an increase of 177% compared to the base year, due to the increase in the population ratio from (65+) from 5 to 14%.

• the overall demographic dependency rates decreased during the study period by about a quarter, as a result of the change in age groups during the study period.

• as for the contribution rates, they gradually increased during the study period, until this increase reached more than 10% during the period, due to the increase in the age group of the working age population.

• with regard to unemployment rates, a relative stability occurred during most of the study periods, and decreased by more than 20% in the last years of the study period, due to the increase in the age group of the working-age population.