Estimation and prediction the probability of failure with application

Abstract EN

One of the reasons that reduces the production of factories is the failure of these machines that are used for production.

One of the reasons for these failures is due to failures of the components of the machines, which is due to all the stress that these components face while working.

That is why trying to make the life of these machines longer we need to know the (Probability of Failure) and (Cycle of Failure) for the components of these machines.

The Researcher, to achieve and obtain the main goal of this study, after very hard work started to collect data on five components (time of failure and repair) of these components in a steel company, the company that is in Erbil City Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

The Researcher reached a conclusion finding the probability of failure and cycle to failure for each component in these machines, also estimating the value of cycle to failure for nine specific values of the probability of failure.

We also designed a model for predicting the probability of failure for each machine including all the components together through using Factor Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis.

STAT Graphics, SPSS and Microsoft Excel have been used for all the calculations, graphics, and analysis.