القياس الاقتصادي لأثر الاقتصاد المعرفي في التبادل التجاري الدولي في دول مختارة للمدة (1995-2019)‎

Abstract EN

The research focused on measuring and analyzing the impact of knowledge-based economy indicators on the international exchange of selected countries in the World Trade Organization, and annual data for the period (1995-2019) were used, and the method of joint integration can be applied using the Autonomous Distributed Deceleration Model (ARDL).

The research concluded, and after testing the stability of the time series for the variables studied in the research using the Extended Dicke Fuller Unit Root (ADF) and Philip Peyron (PP) tests.

The stability of some variables at the level I (0) and some variables were stable at the first difference I (1) and there are no integrated variables of the second order I (2), and therefore the joint integration methodology can be applied using the ARDL model.

The research also concluded that the results of the short-term relationship according to the joint integration model of the studied countries and the estimated variables varied, as follows: The variable (X1) has a positive sign for Germany and Singapore, meaning that this variable directly affects the dependent variable (Y), while the signal was negative in Japan, meaning that the effect of this variable is negative for the dependent variable.

As for the variable (X2), its sign was positive in Japan and Singapore, while the sign appeared negative in Germany.

As for the variable (X3), its signal was positive in Germany, while the signal was negative in Japan and Singapore.

In other words, the three variables did not coincide with the economic hypothesis that these variables positively affect global exports, so their signals varied from one country to another.

The results also showed that the parameter CointEq (-1) was negative and significant, meaning that the short-term imbalance or deviation in the explanatory variables in the previous year to the current year is corrected and it fulfills the necessary and sufficient condition for the long-term relationship between the variables.

Except for Germany was positive Signal and moral, and this does not fulfill the necessary and sufficient condition.

As for the long-term relationship, it showed that the relationship of independent variables is not significant in the relationship with the dependent variable, that is, it does not have a long-term effect, so we accept the null hypothesis (H0) (the ence of co-integration "long-term equilibrium relationship" between the variables), except in Singapore.

Significant and alternated between negative and positive, that is, it has a significant effect according to the sign of the parameter of the estimated variable, so we accept the alternative hypothesis (H1) (the existence of co-integration "long-term equilibrium relationship" between the variables).

The research suggested urging researchers to focus on studying the changes in the knowledge economy and their effects on the rate of trade exchange, and their implications for the economic reality in Iraq, and to encourage the contribution of electronic commerce in international exchange in order to achieve economic growth and increase exports and imports.