Future scenarios of Arbaeen Hosseini walking based on causal layers analysis

Abstract EN

This research seeks to answer the question of what are the causal layers of Arbaeen Hosseini's walk, and what scenarios can be drawn for the future of it? To answer these questions, the method of causal layer analysis in future study has been used.

The findings show that at the level of the causal layers, the existence of a political space in Iraq, the provision of infrastructures in the two countries, the role of authority and religious figures, etc.

are among the factors influencing the Arbaeen super event in its present and future.

In the worldview - discourse layer of the event of Arbaeen Hosseini, one can also refer to the meaning and virtue of Imam Hussein's pilgrimage, as well as the impact of this super event on the authority of Shi'ism in shaping the management of regional order, and ultimately in the myth-metaphor layer, the manifestation of Ashuraism and its ability to be repeated in Shiite culture is considered as one of the main pillars of Arbaeen Hosseini's walk.

Three scenarios of transcendence, transformation, and weakening of Arbaeen can be plotted for the future stream by measuring the likelihood or refusal of the shaping layers to this event.

Key words: Arbaeen Hosseini Walking, Causal Layers Analysis, Scenario Writing, Shia Political Culture.