Determinants of terrorism in Tunisia : an empirical study

Abstract EN

The aim of this study is to analyze the determinants of terrorism in the Tunisian context.

The determinants of terrorism include various socio-economic variables such as per capita GDP, unemployment, political stability, poverty, the informal sector and higher levels of education.

To do so we used the ARDL modeling on annual data from 1979 to 2015.

The results of the Bounds test confirmed the existence of at least one cointegration relation between our variables which proves the existence of a long-term relationship.

The long-term results indicate a positive and significant relationship between terrorism and the informal sector, political stability as well as higher education and unemployment rates.

The long-term relationship indicates that FDI, poverty and economic growth negatively affect terrorism.

Similarly, short-term results confirm the existence of a relationship between socio-economic variables and terrorism.