أثر تغير الإيرادات العامة على هيكل أسعار الفائدة في العراق للفترة 2004م-2018م

Abstract EN

The study aimed to analyze the relationship between public revenues in Iraq and structure of interest rates, as oil revenues constitute a very large proportion of public revenues in Iraq and since these revenues are in foreign currencies, which obliges the Central Bank of Iraq to monetize these revenues in local currency through the window of selling currency (currency auction), which is reflected in the increase in money supply continuously, besides its impact on interest rates, which is the main catalyst for investment, based on the premise that public revenues in oil countries affect interest rates as a result of changes in money supply subject to any growth of foreign currency.The study reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which confirmed the results that the monetary policy in Iraq does not have full independence because of the dominance of fiscal policy on the behavior of basic monetary variables, where public revenues and expenditures exert great pressure on the behavior of monetary variables (money supply) and the interest rate of monetary policy.The most important recommendations of the study stress the need to diversify sources of income to reduce dependence on oil revenues, which reduces the impact of public revenues shocks in general and oil in particular on the structure of interest rates in Iraq.