أثر المتغيرات الاقتصادية على الميزان التجاري باستخدام أسلوب التكامل المشترك

Abstract EN

This research aims to study the impact of economic variables on the Iraqi trade balance using the method of co integration during the period (2004 - 2017).

The result of the research is a significant number of results, namely, the effect of gross national income on the trade balance, and the higher the value of gross national income by one unit, the trade balance will increase by 0.129 units.

The effect of the variable GDP on the trade balance variable is not significant.

On the balance of trade and that the greater the value of total national expenditure by one unit, the balance of trade will increase by 0.100 units, significant effect of total savings on the balance of trade and that the more the value of total savings by one unit, the balance Trading will increase by 0.540 units, the effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance and the more the value of the exchange rate by one unit, the trade balance will be decreased by 0.485 units.

The research summarized that it is necessary to work to increase the Iraqi national income, because of its positive impact on the balance of trade and work to diversification of the Iraqi economy and not rely on oil only as a source of national income, increasing the rates of national spending on investment projects that help to increase the quantities produced goods, especially the products that Iraq nation can export them, which leads to a positive impact on the trade balance, increasing saving rates and try to invest the available resources in the best way that leads to a positive impact on the balance of trade, working to increase the value of the Iraqi dinar to the opposite the US dollar and try to reduce the exchange rate because this leads to a positive impact on the balance of trade