Comparison between gm (1, 1)‎ and fogm (1, 1)‎ models for forecasting the rate of precipitation in sulaimani

Abstract EN

Forecasting for the rate of precipitation is so important because in these lately years the climate has changed that effects on the weather this caused by the pollution of environment which is increase positively with the developing of industrials sector.

In our country agriculture is one of the main branches of economic specially wheat and barley that are need rain, that's why who may concern it must pay attention to collect pure data and analysing them and then forecasting the rate of precipitation to put a plan for the economic in future years, the GM(1, 1) and FOGM(1, 1) models have been used for forecasting the rate of precipitation, to compare and select the appropriate model the researchers depended on MAPE and precision rate for both models, according to their results the FOGM(1, 1) model was the more appropriate model to represent the behaviour of precipitation rate in Iraqi-Sulaimani governorate with precision rate = 0.939297 and MAPE = 6.07029, four periods have been forecasted which tells that the precipitation rate will be between (796.926 – 801.047)mm for the next four years.