ظاهرة التضخم الركودي في الاقتصاد الليبي

Abstract EN

The Libyan economy has been suffering from the phenomenon of stagflation for decades, as high inflation rates along with high rates of unemployment in light of economic growth fluctuating sharply between a strong recovery and a severe recession.

This current study aims to investigate and test the variables that may affect and cause this phenomenon, therefore the article selected different variables to enrich the results of the study.

The variables are stagflation, GDP, exchange rate ,government expenditure, broad money supply, global oil prices, and an imaginary variable representing the political crises witnessed in the Libyan economy, and it conducted a vector Auto regression (VAR) model for estimation and testing.

The study also conducted causality test in the short term for Granger.

The study found a one-way causal relationship from world oil prices and government expenditure towards stagflation in the Libyan economy in the short term, as well as a one-way causal relationship from world oil prices to government expenditure and money supply.