تشخيص أعراض المرض الهولندي على قطاع الزراعة في ليبيا باستخدام نموذج الإنحدار المتجه (VAR)‎

Abstract EN

Libya is among the developing countries rich in unsustainable natural resources, and its economy is characterized by very similar characteristics of other countries in the African Middle East region, such as Iran, Algeria, Iraq, Nigeria, Ghana and others, and it is considered one of the largest oil exporters in the region.

The oil sector dominates the GDP, and is considered the main source of government revenue and foreign exchange earnings.

However, as all developing states, this oil wealth has not been translated into successful economic performance, but it was exactly the opposite.

The agricultural sector, which wasonce the backbone of the Libyan economy, has become a neglected sector that does not even contribute to providing the food needs of the population.

Researchers sought this problem and studied a number of variables in an attempt to clarify the negative impact of oil on the agricultural sector.

And by analyzing time series of the variables of oil prices and value added, based on one of dynamic models used in economic measurement, which is the Vector Auto-Regressive model.

It was found that there is a one-way causal relationship (Granger Causality Tests) from the variable of oil prices to the added value of the agricultural sector, and through the (VAR) model it was clear that there is a strong negative impact of oil prices on the added value of the agricultural sector in Libya during the period (1980-2018), where an increase in oil prices by 10% for a previous year will lead to a decrease in the value added for the current year by 2.3%, with a significant level of 5%.

It was also found that there are negative repercussions of the impact of high oil prices on the added value of the agricultural sector from the shock analysis and the estimation of the immediate response function over a ten-year period.

Therefore, it is important to adopt strategies that diversify the economic base away from petroleum industry, in order to reduce its negative effects on the economic structure.

It is important to focus on developing the agricultural sector, pumping more investments, and optimally exploiting of agricultural resources.