A system dynamics model for the novel COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract EN

The novel coronavirus COVID-19 is a highly infectious disease with severe respiratory symptoms which may lead to death.

According to the latest disease statistics, COVID-19 has been affecting 213 countries and territories around the world.

So far, the statistics indicate that the disease led to about 367,000 deaths and 6 million infections worldwide between December 31st 2019 and May 30th 2020.

In this paper, we propose a system dynamics model for the spread of COVID-19.

The proposed model investigates possible mechanisms for the spread of infection among humans.

The COVID-19 epidemiological parameters were estimated based on real pandemic data that covers a period of 110 days.

The model was simulated and validated over 365 days for the cases of China, Italy, and USA.

The model simulation outcomes predict a recession of the pandemic in China by August 2020 with a total of 85,832 COVID-19 infected cases.

In Italy, the total number of infections is expected to reach 276,406.

The model interestingly predicts another wave of the COVID-19 outbreak by early 2021.

Finally, the large expected number of 3,394,754 infected people in the USA gives a clear warning of the possibility that the crisis can become out of control.

Under such circumstances, quarantine procedures become ineffective, and a vaccine or a treatment becomes the only solution.

The system dynamics model of COVID-19 provides a good estimation for the numbers of infected, recovered, and dead people, in addition to the pandemic timing and the peak time.