العجز التوأم : دراسة تحليلية للحالة المصرية للفترة (1975-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This study analyzes the relationship between the state budget deficit and the trade balance deficit in Egypt to find out what this relationship is and the effect of each deficit the other, to determine the extent to which the phenomenon of twin deficits in Egypt has been achieved by using many macroeconomic variables, the most important of which are (real GDP - The general budget deficit and trade balance deficit as a percentage of GDP real exchange rate real interest rate - trade openness) during the period (1975-2020) using the methods of cointegration, according to the ARDL methodology, in addition to Granger causality test.

The study concluded that there is a one-way causal relationship from the deficit in the trade balance to the deficit in the state's general budget, which means that the phenomenon of twin deficits in Egypt has not been realized.

Imports, reduce dependence on domestic and foreign loans to finance the budget deficit and search for other sources of financing public projects