أثر الصدمات في أسعار النفط العالمية على التضخم المحلي و السياسات الاقتصادية : دراسة حالة العراق للمدة (2016-2003)‎

Abstract EN

The research aims to analyze the effects that fluctuations in global oil prices can have on domestic inflation، depending on modern statistical technique represented by the Autoregressive Vector Model (VAR) and error correction (EC)، based on the recent and large fluctuations in oil prices and in order to investigate the size of the effect The shocks of international oil prices on local inflation in the structuring of the Iraqi economy، in which the oil sector represents a key position on the grounds that it is the main source of hard currency، and a major source of national income and one of the most important sources of the public budget، and to examine the hypothesis of an impact of shocks in international oil prices on inflation In Iraq، the formulation of a probabilistic dynamic model that takes into account current and future random shocks.

The research found that there is no long-term relationship between domestic inflation and international oil prices، which indicates the success of the economic policies followed in Iraq in maintaining acceptable rates of inflation in the long term، while it was found that the shock in international oil prices will have a clear and obligatory impact on inflation The short term (within 10 months) following the onset of the shock.