تحليل أثر الدين العام على الانفاق الحكومي و النمو الاقتصادي في العراق : دراسة في ظل أثر قوانين الموازنة العامة على الاقتصاد العراقي للمدة (2008-2020)‎

Abstract EN

The purpose of this study is to determine the impact of the amount of public debt on the long-term economic growth of the Iraqi economy because of the importance of public debt as one of the ways to finance the state budget deficit resulting from the increase in public spending, which is an important tool in the framework of any economic policy aimed at achieving growth and economic stability.

The study used data during the years 2008-2020.

The accepted economic perspective is that the effect of public debt on the economy depends on the ratio of the size of the debt to GDP.

In this study, the effect of the size of public debt will also be measured according to this ratio, with the implication being that the higher the debt, the higher the debt-to-GDP ratio.

It should be noted that the continuing budget deficit in the Iraqi economy, in turn, led to the continuation of the borrowing process, whether this borrowing was internal or external, which led to a rise in the volume of public debt to a level that would not be possible for the state to fulfil its financial obligations towards creditors, which negatively affects development efforts.

Therefore, we must not continue to follow the same policy that prevailed during the previous period, because this will have negative effects on the positive results desired from the development process and economic growth.

Research and many previous studies have also found that for relatively low levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio, there is a positive effect on growth and only at levels higher than this ratio does the marginal effect become negative.