الأثار الديموجرافية والاقتصادية لانخفاض أعداد العاملين في القطاع الحكومي المصري

Abstract EN

This research aims to identify the expected demographic and economic impacts of the decline in the number of government sector workers in Egypt through the following: 1- demographic effects: dependency, contribution and unemployment rates in economic activity in light of sustainable development.

2- economic effects: the income of the elderly through pensions, and the extent of the impact of this decrease on the contributions collected from government sector workers on the budget of social insurance funds in light of sustainable development.

the research found: 1- by comparing the replacement rates (1) and (zero), it becomes clear that there is an increase in the total economic dependency rates in the case of the substitution rate (zero) than their counterparts in the replacement rate (1), and this may be due to the decrease in the number of government sector workers with the assumption of inability the private sector absorbs the numbers that were supposed to be employed in the government sector, which led to an increase in total dependency rates, with an average of (9) individuals per worker.

3- by comparing the replacement rates (1) and (zero), it becomes clear that there is a rise in unemployment rates in the case of the replacement rate (zero) than their counterparts in the replacement rate (1) by more than double their value at the end of the study period, and this may be due to the number of workers in the government sector gradually decreased during the study period.

5- by comparing the replacement rates (1) and (zero), it becomes clear that there is in the contributions collected from government sector workers in the case of the replacement rate (zero) for their counterparts in the replacement rate (1) by a rate of more than 12 billion pounds during the study period.

this is due to the gradual decrease in the number of government sector workers during the study period.