A statistical analysis on forecasting prices of some important food commodities in Bangladesh
Other Title(s)
تحليل إحصائي للتنبؤ بأسعار بعض المنتجات الغذائية الهامة في بنغالديش
Joint Authors
al-Mamun, Muhammad Abd Allah
Husayn, Muhammad Zakir
Sayim, Shaykh Muhammad
Mustafa al-Rahman, Khondaker Muhammad
Source
Sultan Qaboos University Journal for Science
Issue
Vol. 25, Issue 2 (31 Dec. 2020), pp.130-137, 8 p.
Publisher
Sultan Qaboos University College of Science
Publication Date
2020-12-31
Country of Publication
Oman
No. of Pages
8
Main Subjects
Natural & Life Sciences (Multidisciplinary)
Abstract EN
This paper investigates the best possible forecasting price models for three important agricultural products in Bangladesh namely potato, onion and garlic using time-series and secondary data from January 2000 to December 2014.
The main objective of this paper is to find out the appropriate time series models using some of the latest selection criteria that could describe the best price patterns of the above mentioned three crops.
To forecast the prices of the crops, the ARIMA models were used, based on model selection criteria and error statistics among the competing models.
The overall findings of the study indicate that the fitted models are satisfactory for the respective commodities.
The study observed increasing trends in forecasted prices of all three commodities.
In particular, the increase in the price of garlic has been observed to be very high compared to that of potato and onion.
The study also found that the best fitted SARIMA model for potato is SARIMA (1,0,0) (0,1,2)12, for onion SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1)12, and for garlic SARIMA (2,1,3) (0,1,3)12.
American Psychological Association (APA)
al-Mamun, Muhammad Abd Allah& Sayim, Shaykh Muhammad& Husayn, Muhammad Zakir& Mustafa al-Rahman, Khondaker Muhammad. 2020. A statistical analysis on forecasting prices of some important food commodities in Bangladesh. Sultan Qaboos University Journal for Science،Vol. 25, no. 2, pp.130-137.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1379151
Modern Language Association (MLA)
al-Mamun, Muhammad Abd Allah…[et al.]. A statistical analysis on forecasting prices of some important food commodities in Bangladesh. Sultan Qaboos University Journal for Science Vol. 25, no. 2 (2020), pp.130-137.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1379151
American Medical Association (AMA)
al-Mamun, Muhammad Abd Allah& Sayim, Shaykh Muhammad& Husayn, Muhammad Zakir& Mustafa al-Rahman, Khondaker Muhammad. A statistical analysis on forecasting prices of some important food commodities in Bangladesh. Sultan Qaboos University Journal for Science. 2020. Vol. 25, no. 2, pp.130-137.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1379151
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 136-137
Record ID
BIM-1379151