مستقبل الدولة في ليبيا بين فرص الإنعاش الاقتصادي و انتشار الإرهاب و تأثيره على الأمن القومي المصري

Abstract EN

Between spring 2019 and winter 2020 the conflict in Libya acquired a Mediterranean dimension due to the increasing, and ever less discreet, involvement of regional actors: for the LNA support came from the Emirates (UAVs and surface-to-air Pant sir missiles), Jordan (armored vehicles and training), Egypt (tactical intelligence), Russia (logistics and mercenaries), Assad’s Syria (mercenaries), and Sudan (mercenaries); for its part the GNA had support from the Qataris (financial), but their support on the ground came essentially from Turkey, from May 2019 onwards (drones, armored vehicles, special forces, advisors.

But this support acquired a massive dimension when at the end of November 2019 two Memoranda of Understanding (defense cooperation and delimitation of maritime frontiers) were signed between Turkey and the GNA in Tripoli (leading to naval deployments, an increase in the number of advisors, the transporting of Syrian mercenaries from the Idlib pocket in Syria into Libya, and the training of Libyan soldiers in Turkey).The conflict in Libya is also generating serious collateral damage: on the ground there has been the destruction of entire districts, large population movements south of Tripoli and the laying of landmines (to the south of Tripoli and around Sirte).

On the other hand, the Libyan economy has deteriorated very dramatically, as well as the security repercussions of the situation in Libya on the Egyptian national security, which led to the need to search for efforts to stop the fighting in Libya as a prelude to achieving peace that achieves economic stability and prosperity not only in Libya but in its neighboring countries.

This requires the regional powers to unite to eliminate the terrorist groups there first, as they represent the biggest obstacle to achieving stability in Libya.169