Forecasting Algeria’s unemployment rates using SARIMA model in python programming : during 2001-2021

Abstract EN

Unemployment is one of the major economic, social and political problems that all the countries of the world are seeking to reduce its severity and to guard against his negatives effects on economy.

On that basis, this study aimed to model and to forecast monthly unemployment rates in Algeria using Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA), which is one of the crucial and most widely used forecasting models for univariate time series data forecasting that takes into account seasonal elements.

Depending on modern python programming, the expected results indicated that among the suggested models, SARIMA Model (5.

1.

3) (1.

0.

0) has got good performance, and it has been statistically accepted.

The forecasting findings during the 12 months of 2021, indicate that a steady enormous increase of the unemployment rates.