تحليل أثر صدمات الصادرات والاستيرادات على بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في العراق للمدة (2004-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This research was presented to address a realistic problem affecting the Iraqi economy and its overall variables due to its rentier nature related to the oil sector.

The research aims to analyze and measure the impact of trade shocks on some macroeconomic variables represented by (General Revenues, unemployment, inflation rate) in the short and long term (2004-2020) using the structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) and impulse response functions and variance decompositions.

The results of the standard side showed that the analysis of the results of the impulse response (IRF) of the trade shock model that the occurrence of a favorable trade shock in exports has a positive and moral impact on public revenue for a period of (10) years, and its impact is morally negative on the inflation rate in the first three years and then the effect is positive, and the impact is morally negative on the unemployment rate.

The results of the variance Decompositions (VDS) showed that the export shock has more impact on the macroeconomic variables represented by (General revenues, inflation rate, unemployment rate) than the import shock.

The research recommends working to implement the open market policy in its narrowest form, because the Iraqi economy is unable to keep pace with this policy, which needs freedom of decision.