Simulation of the impact of oil crisis on population decline in Kuwait between 2020-2050 by using GIS

Abstract EN

Objective: This research paper examines the relationship that holds between the number of emigrants and population decline in Kuwait because of dropping oil revenue as Kuwait’s GDP is 90% dependent on oil industry; population decline is expected to have severe impacts on future planning and policymaking decisions.

Methods: This paper applied an Agent Based Model (ABM) in ArcGIS to simulate the extent of the population dec¬line and its impacts on specific suburbs around the State of Ku¬wait in case the oil crisis eventuates between 2020-2050 accor¬ding to six possible scenarios.

Results: The study found that districts expected to experience sharp population decline shall be in the commercial areas since they comprise the majority of non- -Kuwaiti residents in Kuwait, who shall be the first to emigrate during a crisis.

Conclusion: the Kuwaiti government should re- -evaluate the distribution of its population based on nationality in commercial areas; also, it should prepare a contingency plan in case of a probable oil price collapse in future such as considering a halt on the process of new cities establishments.