The relationship between macroeconomic variables and housing prices in Saudi Arabia using vector auto-regression analysis

Abstract EN

This paper examined how housing prices were determined by some macroeconomic factors in Saudi Arabia.

Variables used are Gross Domestic Product Per capita (GDPP), Consumer Prices Index (CPI), and Unemployment Rate (UNEMP).

Quarterly data for a period (2014q1 – 2019q4) were collected from publications of Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA).

The paper followed a descriptive analytical method in which Vector Auto-Regression Analysis (VAR) is employed to capture the dynamic effect of the variables on housing prices.

Granger Causality, Variance Decomposition and Impulse response function were also used.

The results showed that housing prices were insignificantly and positively related to GDPP, whereas it was negatively related to both (CPI & UNEMP).

Only CPI had a significant relationship.

The three variables, jointly, had Granger causality on HPI.

Variance decompositions reflected that CPI was the variable with the highest explanatory power over the variation of housing prices, followed by GDPP and the UNEMP respectively indicating that CPI was the most influential determinants for housing prices.

The findings suggested that Saudi authorities need to pay close attention to the effect of CPI on housing investment, and in view of the relatively large share of that sector, on overall growth.

Finally, the paper expects that the results would provide awareness into the relation between housing investment and macroeconomic indicators in other developing countries.