الدراسات المستقبلية و دورها في استشراف و إدارة الأزمات : الأزمة الوبائية لفيروس كورونا كوفيد-19 أنموذجا

Abstract EN

The topic deals with the nature and importance of future studies and its most prominent techniques in anticipating -or foresighting- the future of crises, whether before they occur or the possible repercussions during their occurrence as well.

The foresight -and anticipating- process is a theoretical effort that uses accurate and mathematical methods that seek to transcend the present by identifying and analyzing its current variables and the most important reasons controlling it to know its upcoming outcomes and expected results so that the decision maker can adopt the appropriate policy towards that.

Also, “the Time”’s concept is a very central concept in how a person deals with the future, and on the other hand, knowledge of the various precise techniques of foresight will contribute either to having a clear picture of the future, or to managing the causes of the present to make a future as it should be.

The model dealt with in this study is the epidemiological crisis that affected Algeria from the year 2020 to the present day - the end of 2021 - which witnessed sharp turns such as the first, second and third waves that caused negative results on several levels (health, economic and social), which raised a fundamental problem about the possibility of Monitoring the possible repercussions of waves of infection that may come - such as the fourth wave, for example - and on how to contain them with proactive policies provided by the forward-looking outputs of the study, which predict that the fourth wave will be an inevitable event, but it will differ in terms of other available factors to make it less severe than the third wave despite its danger