استخدام التكامل المشترك لقياس أثر سعر الصرف في بعض المتغيرات الاقتصادية الكلية في الجمهورية اليمنية للفترة 1990-2015م

Abstract EN

This research aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate changes on some macroeconomic variables such (GDP, unemployment, inflation rate, money supply) by using the ARDL model for joint integration and the error correction model in the Republic of Yemen during the period (1990-2015).

The study revealed that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables within the short-term error correction mechanism towards long-term equilibrium, and through the parameter error correction factor.

It was found that the value of the error correction factor CointEq (-1) was negative and significant and less than one in the exchange rate relationship to the Macroeconomic variables, which means that deviations in the short term are automatically corrected over time.

This confirms the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables.

The study recommended addressing the total imbalances in the national economy, avoiding excessive money supply, which contribute to aggravating the problems of inflation and high exchange rate, and recommended applying methods of co-integration in the relationship between the exchange rate and other macroeconomic variables.