التنبؤ بالنمو الإقتصادي للجزائر بإستخدام منهجية بوكس - جينكيز للفترة الزمنية (1980-2020)‎

Abstract EN

This study aims to analyze and predict the economic growth of Algeria during the period (1980-2020), and we have chosen the growth rate of per capita GDP as an indicator for measurement, GDBH, and in the forecasting process we have relied on the Box-Jenkins methodology as one of the most famous and most effective methods used in this field.

And by passing through all the stages of analysis on which this methodology depends, the results showed that the appropriate model for representing the data of this series is the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model, which proved effective in predicting the short-term, and finally we performed the process of predicting the growth rate of per capita GDP for the next five years (2021-2022-2023-2024-2025).