هل مصر في طريقها المستديم لسداد خدمة الدين العام الخارجي على المدى الطويل؟: دراسة قياسية خلال الفترة 1970-2021 م

Abstract EN

This research examines whether Egypt is on its sustainable path to repaying the external public debt in the long term through utilizing the data for the period from 1970 to 2021, and the study is based on many indicators such as the balance of the external debt, the value of exports, the value of imports, and the balance of the reserve, and external debt growth rate.

and in order to accomplish that the time series stability test for the variables, and the ARDL model of co-integration are applied.

and when there is an imbalance in the short term, the error correction mechanism is used to correct the imbalance, and the short-term dynamic can be derived by estimating the error correction model (ECM), then in order to verify the sustainability of the external debt, and Egypt’s ability to repay its external debts in the long term, the F-bounds test accompanying the model was applied to verify the existence of a long-term relationship between the variables of the study.

it was found that the calculated F-test value of (6.048) is higher than the critical value of the upper bound (3.79) at the 5% significance level, which means that there is a co-integration relationship between the external debt and all the variables of the study, and this co-integration increases by 3% yearly, which means that the variables move together in the long term, and this is an indication of the sustainability of the external debt, and Egypt’s ability to repay its external debts in the long term, and this ability increases by 3% annually.