التجارة الخارجية الزراعية و تأثيرها على الناتج القومي

Abstract EN

The foreign trade sector occupies a strategic role in the economic structure of all developed and developing countries alike, especially in light of the current global conditions, and what is observed from some countries achieving surplus in some goods and products and in return the suffering of some countries, especially developing ones, from shortcomings and inability to meet The increasing needs of individuals from many commodities and food products due to the increasing rates of population growth and the inability of local production to keep pace with the increasing demand for them.

The problem of the study is limited to the inability and weakness of the agricultural domestic product to meet the requirements and needs of the population of commodities and food products in Egypt, and for this the study aimed mainly to identify the foreign trade of the agricultural sector and its role in the national product during the period (2006/2005-2019/2020) by During: Studying the foreign trade of the Egyptian agricultural sector.

The coverage rate of agricultural exports for agricultural imports.

The effect of foreign trade on the gross domestic product.

The study reached several results, the most important of which are It was found that each of the value of the gross domestic product (public - private - total) increases annually with a statistically confirmed increase of about 94.7, 247.4 and 342.2 billion pounds, which is equivalent to about 12.4% , 15.6% and 14.6 % of the average of each of them, respectively, during the study period.

Total agricultural exports increase annually, a statistically confirmed increase estimated at about 50.5 billion pounds, equivalent to about 145.1% of the general average of total agricultural exports.

The inability of the increase in agricultural exports to keep up with the increase in agricultural imports.

The inability of agricultural exports to cover the bill of agricultural imports.

Total agricultural imports are increasing annually, a statistically confirmed increase estimated at about 133.8 billion pounds, equivalent to about 136.5% of the general average of total agricultural imports.

The average tendency to import continued to fluctuate between increase and decrease during the study period, and the minimum in (2019/2020) reached about 3.0% , while its maximum reached about 6.4% in (2010/2011), with an average It was about 4.3% during the study period.

The average tendency to export continued to fluctuate between increase and decrease during the study period, and its minimum reached in (2006/2007) at a rate of about 0.7% , while its maximum reached about 2.1% in (2010/2010).

2011), with an average of about 1.4% percent during the study period.

The marginal propensity to import ranged around -8.7% in (2019/2020), and about 12.8% in (2008/2009), with an average of about 2.8% during the study period.

The value of the marginal propensity to export also fluctuated during the study period and ranged between about -1.1% in (2012/2013) and about 6.4% in (2008/2009), with an average of about 1.5 percent during Study period.

The study reached the following recommendationsAttention to increasing the economic efficiency of agricultural production and agricultural exports and reducing agricultural imports.

Reducing the high value of agricultural production requirements.

Maximizing the role of agricultural foreign trade.