مساهمة الإنتاج الفلاحي في تحقيق الأمن الغذائي في الجزائر : شعبة القمح نموذجا

Abstract EN

The study aimed to identify the extent of the contribution of wheat production to the impact on self-sufficiency in Algeria, and in the framework of modeling self-sufficiency of wheat in Algeria during the period 1990-2019, we proposed wheat production as an explanatory variable, and based on the boundary methodology, it was emphasized that these variables are in a state of integration It has a long-run equilibrium relationship.

And the ARDL(2, 2) model was accepted, which explains about 91% of the changes in the variance of the internal variable because the residuals are white noises that are subject to normal distribution and the model parameters are stable and consistent، In light of this model, the increase in the production volume by one million kantars leads to an improvement in the level of sufficiency by 1.

14% in the long run, and the approved model is acceptable from a statistical and standard point of view and therefore is credible.