Effect of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine crisis on the oil market volatility

Abstract EN

This paper analyzes the effect of the COVID-19 and the Russian war on the oil market, the paper gives an overview on the oil market and the fluctuations of its prices emphasizing the impact of the health and geopolitical crises ; the study uses the GARCH (1,1) model to analyze the volatility of the oil prices and show their reaction to the crises.

the results indicate the existence of very high volatility in the return series over the period 01 / 1998 to 09 / 2022 ; the conditional standard deviation graph confirms the reaction of the oil market to the geopolitical, economic and health crises especially during the last two years and after the COVID-19 pandemic.