Using ARIMA models, predicting the construction GDP in KSA

Abstract EN

In this research, use the time series models gross domestic product (GDP) at current price in KSA construction.

the results showed that the model is the appropriate model for the series of arima is : arima (4,1,0), according to the estimation results of this model, we observe the compatibility between observed and estimated values as these values are consistent with those in the original time series, indicating the strength of the model and predictability.

we see the agreement between the real and estimated values in light of the model's estimation findings, which highlights its predictive strength.

the model is regarded as the best among all the selected models since it outperformed all the requirements for time series, had a high level of predictive ability, and has predicted values that are comparable to and close to the original values.

for the descriptive statistics of the model, r-squared represents the coefficient of good fit if the value is greater = 0.93 more than 0.05 this mean the model represent data exactly (good model).

this table provides an estimate of the coefficients of the model, from the model we note that the level of significance Sig = 0.00.

less than 0.05, which indicates that the coefficients are statistically significant, also effective and predictable.