دور سياسة سعر الصرف في تحقيق الاستقرار الاقتصادي: دراسة قياسية باستخدام نموذج أشعة الانحدار الذاتي VAR لحالة الجزائر خلال الفترة 1990-2020

Abstract EN

This study seeks to specify the impact of the exchange rate policy on the economic stability in Algeria during the period 1990-2020.

it uses VAR model as well as the methodology of granger that tests the causality relationship between the variables of the study.

the study concludes that the exchange rate policy in Algeria influences some indicators of the economic stability such as inflation and unemployment while the relative significance of the exchange rate’s shocks on the economic growth and the trade balance is very weak which is supported by the causality test of granger.

this is because the Algerian economy relies on the revenue of hydrocarbon as a main source of the foreign currency and the rigidity of the productive device.

the study also stressed the need to find other financing alternatives and to diversify the economic activity.