The influence of political and security instability on Egyptian tourism during the period (2007-2019)‎

Abstract EN

This paper deals with the political, security stability, and its impact on the tourism industry two global crises: The global economic crisis of 2007/2008, and the emerging Corona Virus pandemic 2019.

(COVID-19), where tourism differed before and after these crises.

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It takes Egypt as a model, because it is a main touristic country.

Additionally, it faced a political and security turmoil after 2010, due to the wave of the Arab Spring revolutions and its implications.

The authors used the Political Stability Index (PSI) and the Security Apparatus Index (SAI) to determine the state of stability in Egypt and its temporal development during the period (2007-2019).

Moreover, the number of terrorist incidents (TI), officially and unofficially registered, was additionally used to analyze the spatial variations of the state of security stability in Egypt.

Three axes measured the impact of these indicators on tourism: tourism air traffic, hotel occupancy rates, and tourism revenues.

Researchers found a strong inverse relationship between security and political instability and hotel occupancy rates: the value of (R2) was 0.707 for (SAI), and 0.633 for (PSI).

Likewise, the relation between (PSI) and tourism revenues is positive; the Pearson Correlation Coefficient was (0.9), which mean that increasing the political stability will lead to increasing the revenues.

As a result, it was inverse between security instability and tourism revenues, where the correlation coefficient was (-0.97).