اختبار العلاقة بين التنويع الاقتصادي والنمو في مصر باستخدام نموذج NARDL

Abstract EN

This paper investigates the relationship between economic diversification and the real GDP growth rate in Egypt during the period 1994-2021.

to consider the possibility that this relationship is non-linear, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (NARDL) was employed on a production function derived from the Solow model including physical capital, human capital, technology, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) as a measure of economic diversification.

the results of the asymmetry test confirmed the existence of a long run asymmetric or non-linear relationship between economic diversification and growth in Egypt, as the positive shocks in the HHI index, i.e., low economic diversification, have a negative impact on growth rates while the negative shocks, i.e., increasing economic diversification, is having positive impact on economic growth in Egypt.