Towards two child family as an ultimate sustainable development policy goal in Egypt

Abstract EN

Total population of Egypt about 100 million persons, (CAPMAS 2017).

Egypt is characterized by the presence of large families; the Egyptian story is not unique.

Other countries have experienced slow or stalled fertility declines, or even a reversal (e.g.

Kenya and Ghana in Africa, and Bangladesh and the Philippines in Asia).

the sustained fertility decline in Egypt began 1960s, during the 1980s and early 1990s, the decline in fertility picked up speed.

The last decade, however, witnessed a noticeable slowing in the pace of decline, in 2014 the total fertility rate (TFR) in excess of 3.5 birth per woman according to the latest DHS survey in Egypt.

rreplacement level fertility in Egypt in the near future will require reduction in both wanted and unwanted fertility, this required reductions in wanted and unwanted fertility are roughly equal.

the segments of the population where fertility is currently relatively high (rural areas, less educated women, poorer households).

the reductions in wanted fertility will need to be about twice as large as the reduction in unwanted fertility.

first of all the reductions in wanted and unwanted fertility are required.

a second, equally important point is that replacement-level fertility will be difficult to achieve unless most Egyptians accept two childbearing goals.

the demographic regime in Egypt is characterized by universal and relatively early marriages and there are many obstacle to the achievement for this goal the most obstacle repack for the old traditional because the Egyptians wish to have both a son and a daughter, for women perceive much gain from having a large number of children and most acknowledge the advantages of having just two children.