العلاقة بين تقلبات أسعار النفط وأسعار السلع الغذائية العالمية: دراسة تحليلية وقياسية

Abstract EN

The current research is concerned with studying the relationship between fluctuations in oil prices and global food commodity prices, by presenting the related concepts and factors affecting oil prices and food commodity prices.

And analysis of the relationship between the two variables, as well as monitoring and analysis of the evolution of oil prices and global food commodity prices.

And measuring the relationship between the two variables using Granger causality and the Autoregressive Vector model (VAR).

The research found a one-way causal relationship in which oil price fluctuations affect the fluctuations of global food commodity prices.

And there is a significant positive impact of the global financial crisis on the increase in oil price fluctuations.

And a positive moral impact of the Corona crisis on the increase in the price fluctuations of food commodities.

Therefore, economic policy makers and international investors must monitor changes that may occur in oil prices due to their impact on global food commodity prices.

International investors can also take advantage of this when they decide to restructure their financial portfolios.