محددات عجز الموازنة في مصر، 1999-2022

Abstract EN

This study aims at determining the factors affecting the budget deficit in Egypt during the period 1999-2022 and explaining the reasons for this deficit, using the co-integration model and the vector error correction model (VECM).

the study concluded that there is a permanent structural deficit, the causes of which vary: the imbalance of the macroeconomic structure, slowing and unsustainable growth rates, several external and internal shocks, the expansion of public spending, and weak tax systems.

a significant effect of the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and external debt on the budget deficit is evident.

the study recommends effectively coordinating between fiscal and monetary policies, restructuring the budget to ensure efficient spending without wasting resources, and maximizing revenues by raising the efficiency of the tax system.

adopting an alternative development model based on mobilizing domestic resources as an alternative to borrowing is also recommended.