أثر الصدمات غير المتماثلة لسعر الصرف على معدل التضخم في السودان خلال الفترة من 1999-2021 م باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي ذو الفجوات الموزعة غير الخطي NARDL

Abstract EN

The study aimed to prove that the positive and negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation rate are asymmetric in both short and long run during the period 1990- 2021, by using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag NARDL model, it proved that the relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate is nonlinear, which means the positive and negative shocks of exchange rate are asymmetric on inflation rate, and the positive shocks has a significant impact on the inflation rate in the short and long run, while negative shocks do not have a significant impact, which means that the exchange rate decline do not reduce the inflation rate, it recommended the necessity of developing monetary policies based on accurate information about the impact of positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate on the inflation rate and inflation targeting to achieve price stability and reduce internal and external imbalances.