العلاقة بين سعر الصرف وأسعار النفط ورصيد الميزان التجاري الليبي: دراسة قياسية على الاقتصاد الليبي للفترة 1990-2020م

Abstract EN

The study focused on the relationship between the trade balance and its main determinants in the Libyan economy using time series data from 1990 to 2020 by applying the ARDL model, taking into account the special characteristics of the Libyan economy and by considering the empirical context.

An econometric model was built to measure the impact of both the exchange rate and the oil price on the trade balance in the Libyan economy during the study period.

The trade balance is 0.87, 1.331 at a significant level at 5 %, and the results of selecting the limits confirmed the existence of a joint integration relationship between the variables under study, as the calculated value of the statistic (t, F) equals (9.96) (5.25), respectively, which is greater than the corresponding values for the level of significance.

(10 %, 5 %) The error correction coefficient indicated that the short-term errors are corrected per unit time by about 99 % in the long term to return to the equilibrium position