Time-series forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic using auto recurrent linear regression
Author
Source
Journal of Engineering Research
Issue
Vol. 11, Issue 2 B (30 Jun. 2023), pp.49-58, 10 p.
Publisher
Kuwait University Academic Publication Council
Publication Date
2023-06-30
Country of Publication
Kuwait
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Pharmacy, Health & Medical Sciences
Abstract EN
Since the beginning of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the economy and lifestyle of people.
Various data analytics have been performed on data obtained from various sources.
These analytics include symptom prediction, time-series forecasting, and impact analyses.
Forecasting the end of the pandemic remains a challenge for many countries.
Time-series forecasting models have been proposed for various applications.
However, a nonseasonal and nonstationary forecasting method is required for predicting the progression of the pandemic.
An auto regressive linear regression algorithm was proposed using the COVID-19 data of a certain geography.
The results of the proposed methodology are convincing when compared with the nonseasonal and nonstationary existing methodologies, such as linear regression and exponential smoothing variants.
The standard deviation and root mean square error of the proposed method were 430.22 and 0.31, respectively, for active cases, and 27.01 and 0.77 for the rate of transmission with positive skew and platykurtic trend, respectively
American Psychological Association (APA)
Joseph, Ferdin Joe John. 2023. Time-series forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic using auto recurrent linear regression. Journal of Engineering Research،Vol. 11, no. 2 B, pp.49-58.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1604338
Modern Language Association (MLA)
Joseph, Ferdin Joe John. Time-series forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic using auto recurrent linear regression. Journal of Engineering Research Vol. 11, no. 2 B (Jun. 2023), pp.49-58.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1604338
American Medical Association (AMA)
Joseph, Ferdin Joe John. Time-series forecast of the COVID-19 pandemic using auto recurrent linear regression. Journal of Engineering Research. 2023. Vol. 11, no. 2 B, pp.49-58.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-1604338
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 58
Record ID
BIM-1604338