A novel reliable real time scada load forecasting technique for power system

Abstract EN

The Unified Load Dispatch and Communication schemes implemented at all control centers in India are equipped with load forecasting tools to assist the Power Grid operators.

These load forecasting tools primarily use the hourly data and the algorithms are generally based on similar day forecast or on weather based forecast.

Due to instantaneous hourly sampling of data, no separate forecasting is possible for the smaller time interval within an hour.

This lacuna poses one of the major constraints in these load forecasting tools.

Therefore in this paper a novel real time load forecasting by SCADA in power system to meet the specific requirement of estimating grid demand and Frequency on Real Time basis in advance for a shorter duration of next immediate 30 minutes is developed.

In order to achieve this with the high level of accuracy, the well-defined and proven algorithms like Similar Day Forecast associated with Statistical Analysis are used on Real Time SCADA data and the present paper discusses in detail about the developed tools, its performance and results.