Stochastic model for monthly flow to bekhem reservoir at the north of Iraq

Abstract EN

In this study (ARMA) method of time series analysis is applied to monthly flow for Bekhem reservoir.

This method involves decomposition of the historical series into trend, seasonality and residual components.

Stochastic ARMA models are then fitted to the residuals.

Forecasts of the future value of the flow rate for 5th years starting from the last observation in Sep.

1982 to the observation in Oct.

1988 are also made by using ARMA.