Food prices and political instability

Abstract EN

We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007.

Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries, increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict.

In High Income Countries variations in the international food prices have no significant effects on democratic institutions and measures of intra-state conflict.

Our empirical results point to a significant externality of variations in international food prices on Low Income Countries' social and political stability.