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Severity of droughts in arid regions
Joint Authors
Hamdi, Moshrik R.
al-Tarawinah, Ziyad Salim
al-Gaali, al-Gaali A.
Source
Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering
Issue
Vol. 2, Issue 3 (30 Sep. 2008), pp.228-237, 10 p.
Publisher
Jordan University of Science and Technology Deanship of Research
Publication Date
2008-09-30
Country of Publication
Jordan
No. of Pages
10
Main Subjects
Earth Sciences, Water and Environment
Topics
Abstract EN
The increasing water shortage in Jordan threatens the environment and badly affects most of the scoi-economic activities.
In central Jordan, where major agricultural and water storage projects are located, the October – May rainy season precipitation for two gauging sites; namely Amman Airport and Madaba, is used in the present study to investigate the occurrence of extreme droughts.
The extreme regional dry year occurs when the precipitation in that year falls under the threshold of 1 Standard Deviation below the long-term mean at site.
Historical precipitation data, 1938 – 2005, are used to simulate 50000 precipitation data using multivariate stochastic simulation model of order 1, MAR (1).
Drought analysis using the historical precipitation shows that extreme droughts fall out as individual years, while using generated precipitation droughts is distributed as 1 year events mostly, and as 2 and 3 years duration although less.
This study also presents a theoretical model to estimate the return period of extreme droughts.
The estimated return period of the 1 year extreme drought in central Jordan is around 10 years, whereas it is 160 years or more for droughts of longer durations.
The probability that an extreme drought occurs at least once in a planning period of 25 years, defined as the risk, is found to be more than 90% for drought of 1 year duration, while it is found to be 15% or less for events of 2 years or more.
American Psychological Association (APA)
al-Tarawinah, Ziyad Salim& al-Gaali, al-Gaali A.& Hamdi, Moshrik R.. 2008. Severity of droughts in arid regions. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering،Vol. 2, no. 3, pp.228-237.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-284769
Modern Language Association (MLA)
al-Tarawinah, Ziyad Salim…[et al.]. Severity of droughts in arid regions. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering Vol. 2, no. 3 (2008), pp.228-237.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-284769
American Medical Association (AMA)
al-Tarawinah, Ziyad Salim& al-Gaali, al-Gaali A.& Hamdi, Moshrik R.. Severity of droughts in arid regions. Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering. 2008. Vol. 2, no. 3, pp.228-237.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-284769
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
English
Notes
Includes bibliographical references : p. 236-237
Record ID
BIM-284769