Temperature variability over Saudi Arabia and its association with global climate indices

Abstract EN

This paper investigates the effect of large-scale forcings on the variability of the mean air temperature of Saudi Arabia, using the observed data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis gridded datasets for the period 1978-2010.

The analysis shows that the seasonal mean temperature variability is high in the northern and central regions compared to the southern.

Moreover, the temperature variability is highest (~30%) in the winter season and lowest (~2 %) in the summer.

Following global warming indications, the interannual variability of the mean air temperature of Saudi Arabia indicates a warming phase that started in the late 1990s.

The analysis reveals that the strong variability in temperature over Saudi Arabia is closely associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index for all seasons except the autumn; however, the relationship is most prominent during the winter season.

The study indicates that the winter season temperature is also influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, whereas the spring season temperature is influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

This research concludes that the negative phases of ENSO, AO and NAO all play a major role in the temperature increase over most parts of Saudi Arabia.