Agricultural transformation and labor mobility during the arip period in Turkey : evidence from micro-data, 2000-2002

Abstract EN

This paper analyses the transition dynamics in and out of agricultural and non-agricultural employment in the Turkish labor market during ARIP period.

A multinomial logit model is used to determine the factors that affect these processes.

Before launching our investigation of the flows, we dealt with the attrition / substitution problem.

We reviewed the methodology developed by Tunali, Ekinci and Yavuzoglu (2011) and adopt it for the problem we are addressing.

Empirical findings confirm that there is a systematic relationship between attrition behavior and labor market outcomes in the HLFS.

For workers aged 15 and over, non-participants in both periods are severely overrepresented in the balanced panel.

In addition, unemployed workers and employed workers in agriculture are underrepresented in the balanced panel.

We calculate weights (reflation / deflation factors) for individuals.

We then use these weights in MNL regression as probability weights.

The MNL results enlighten the challenges of making successful transition to non-agricultural employment that faced by the workers who have left agriculture.

Age and educational attainment are crucial for making a successful transition between agricultural and non-agricultural employment.

Elder generations and less educated people are more likely to continue with farming.

Better educated individuals are more likely to flow into non-agricultural employment.