استخدام السلاسل الزمنية في تحديد اتجاهات الجريمة و تطوراتها في الدول العربية
Other Title(s)
The use of time series in identifying trends towards some crime patterns in the Arab States
Author
Source
المجلة العربية للدراسات الأمنية
Issue
Vol. 23, Issue 45 (28 Feb. 2008), pp.97-138, 42 p.
Publisher
Naif Arab University for Security Sciences
Publication Date
2008-02-28
Country of Publication
Saudi Arabia
No. of Pages
42
Main Subjects
Topics
- Sociology
- Crime
- Criminal evidence
- Police
- Criminal investigation
- Criminals
- Arab world
- Fingerprints
- Criminal Search
- Eavesdropping
Abstract EN
The present study is oriented to accomplish two-fold objectives.
First is to introduce time series and review their relevance and importance to criminal statistics.
Second is to apply time series analysis to study general trends towards some crime patterns in the Arab world.
Included in this endevour is the projection of its evolution and future forecasts.
The study has addressed the issue at hand from bi-dimensionalperspectives_theoretical and empirical.
Theoretical side introduces the concept of time series, its components and mathematical-analytical models.
Empirical perspective reflects the approach employed by the author.
Pursuant to this approach, the latter sought to collect data from the NAIF Arab University on Security Sciences for certain specific crime-murder; serious injury; robbery; and rape.
This covered a specific period : 1995-2000.
The focus of attention was to determine general trends, future developments, and correlations between various problems of crimes.
The study, as a whole, showed that its findings are consistent with the quadratic model.
In broad, the present study yielded following findings of salience : 1.General trends exist on the constant increase towards four patterns of crimes as delineated above.
The form and rate of such increase varies, however, from one pattern to another.
2.General trends on the above - citied four crime patterns are nonlinear.
3.Viewed in the context of current circumstances-political, so-cial, economic and security-future forecasts reflect continued and rapid increase in theft and sexual assaults and marked decline in homicides and serious injury.
4.
Cross correlation function shows no substantive linkage between the four time series models
American Psychological Association (APA)
مقدم، عبد الحفيظ سعيد. 2008. استخدام السلاسل الزمنية في تحديد اتجاهات الجريمة و تطوراتها في الدول العربية. المجلة العربية للدراسات الأمنية،مج. 23، ع. 45، ص ص. 97-138.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-330153
Modern Language Association (MLA)
مقدم، عبد الحفيظ سعيد. استخدام السلاسل الزمنية في تحديد اتجاهات الجريمة و تطوراتها في الدول العربية. المجلة العربية للدراسات الأمنية مج. 23، ع. 45 (كانون الثاني / شباط 2008)، ص ص. 97-138.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-330153
American Medical Association (AMA)
مقدم، عبد الحفيظ سعيد. استخدام السلاسل الزمنية في تحديد اتجاهات الجريمة و تطوراتها في الدول العربية. المجلة العربية للدراسات الأمنية. 2008. مج. 23، ع. 45، ص ص. 97-138.
https://search.emarefa.net/detail/BIM-330153
Data Type
Journal Articles
Language
Arabic
Notes
يتضمن هوامش.
Record ID
BIM-330153