استخدام السلاسل الزمنية في تحديد اتجاهات الجريمة و تطوراتها في الدول العربية

Abstract EN

The present study is oriented to accomplish two-fold objectives.

First is to introduce time series and review their relevance and importance to criminal statistics.

Second is to apply time series analysis to study general trends towards some crime patterns in the Arab world.

Included in this endevour is the projection of its evolution and future forecasts.

The study has addressed the issue at hand from bi-dimensionalperspectives_theoretical and empirical.

Theoretical side introduces the concept of time series, its components and mathematical-analytical models.

Empirical perspective reflects the approach employed by the author.

Pursuant to this approach, the latter sought to collect data from the NAIF Arab University on Security Sciences for certain specific crime-murder; serious injury; robbery; and rape.

This covered a specific period : 1995-2000.

The focus of attention was to determine general trends, future developments, and correlations between various problems of crimes.

The study, as a whole, showed that its findings are consistent with the quadratic model.

In broad, the present study yielded following findings of salience : 1.General trends exist on the constant increase towards four patterns of crimes as delineated above.

The form and rate of such increase varies, however, from one pattern to another.

2.General trends on the above - citied four crime patterns are nonlinear.

3.Viewed in the context of current circumstances-political, so-cial, economic and security-future forecasts reflect continued and rapid increase in theft and sexual assaults and marked decline in homicides and serious injury.

4.

Cross correlation function shows no substantive linkage between the four time series models